Je découvre le blog de Rodney Brooks, un des papes (c'est con comme expression en fait) de la robotique. Son dernier article du 17/05/2019 parle de véhicule autonome avant de parler d'IA généralisée, et il y exprime un scepticisme en phase avec le mien :

When I saw someone tweeting that Musk’s comments meant that a million autonomous taxis would be on the road by 2020, I tweeted out the following:

" Let’s count how many truly autonomous (no human safety driver) Tesla taxis (public chooses destination & pays) on regular streets (unrestricted human driven cars on the same streets) on December 31, 2020. It will not be a million. My prediction: zero. Count & retweet this then."

I think these three criteria need to be met before someone can say that we have autonomous taxis on the road.

The first challenge, no human safety driver, has not been met by a single experimental deployment of autonomous vehicles on public roads anywhere in the world. They all have safety humans in the vehicle.

Brooks cite un article de Victor Luckerson au moins aussi critique : The Long and Lucrative Mirage of the Driverless Car (16/05/2019)

For years, Silicon Valley giants and Detroit automakers alike have sold the public visions of a utopia featuring autonomous vehicles. That reality is still far off, but that hasn’t stopped companies from cashing in on repeated promises that suggest otherwise. (...) What’s changed? Self-driving cars—and their associated building blocks such as machine learning, computer vision, and LIDAR—continue to improve, but executives other than Musk have been admitting that reports of their impending deployment were greatly exaggerated. Ford CEO Jim Hackett said last month that the industry had “overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles.” Chris Urmson, the former leader of Google’s self-driving car project, once hoped that his son wouldn’t need a driver’s license because driverless cars would be so plentiful by 2020. Now the CEO of the self-driving startup Aurora, Urmson says that driverless cars will be slowly integrated onto our roads “over the next 30 to 50 years.” (...) But the whole endeavor has the feeling of a high-stakes gamble, where everyone’s gone all in and no one is sure of the exact payoff. “Everyone in the industry is becoming more and more nervous that they will waste billions of dollars,” Klaus Froehlich, a board member at BMW and its head of research and development, told Reuters last year.

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